The following is an op-ed written by Phuntsho Wangyel, Officer-in-Charge, UNFPA Maldives.
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The recently released population projections from the Maldives Bureau of Statistics got me thinking about 20-year-olds Aimi and Yoosuf. What kind of future are we building for them in the Maldives?
This new data is not just a collection of numbers; it is the story of Maldives’ people including Aimi, Yoosuf, and the generations who will follow them. It provides the evidence policymakers need to shape a future where all Maldivians can truly thrive, today and tomorrow.
What do these numbers tell us?
They tell us that our population is stabilizing, with the total fertility rate around 1.7 births per woman, below the replacement level, compared to approximately 6.4 in the 1990s (Maldives Bureau of Statistics, 2023). Currently, about 8% of the population is aged 60 and above, a proportion expected to more than triple to around 32% by 2050 (United Nations Maldives, 2025). To put simply, by 2050, older persons could make up more than a quarter of Maldivians, while the working-age population begins to shrink.
These numbers also reveal that Malé continues to absorb nearly half of the entire nation’s population, while many islands face gradual depopulation. In search of better job opportunities and improved living standards, people continue to migrate to the capital, pushing Malé’s population density to some of the highest levels in the world, with an area of just 5.8 square kilometers (Maldives Bureau of Statistics, 2023). Meaning, the city is under pressure to meet housing, healthcare, and service demands.
Urbanization is a global phenomenon, and the Maldives is no exception. This is precisely why we must reflect on the choices we make about our urban spaces today, because those decisions will directly shape the health, well-being, and quality of life of future generations.
What does this mean for our future?
It means our demographic transition, from a young, growing population to an older, slower-growing one, is irreversible. It means the policies that worked yesterday may not sustain us tomorrow. It means that Aimi and Yoosuf’s generation will be the bridge between two very different Maldivian societies: one young and expanding, the other ageing and contracting.
While Aimi and Yoosuf are both 20-years-old today, by 2045 they will be 40; by 2062, nearing their 60s. Meaning, the data we examine today reflects their past, but the actions we initiate now, will determine their future. To truly plan for 2045, we must envision a Maldives where Aimi, Yoosuf, their parents, and their children can genuinely flourish, reaching their fullest potential.
If our policies remain reactive rather than preventive, by 2045, no government will be able to sustain the cost of healthcare and social support, especially amid changing demographics and rapid urbanization.
Our health systems are bound to grow costlier, our urban spaces denser, and our families smaller. The National Transfer Account (NTA) methodology, which merges population trends with economic spending, projects a 2% annual increase in health expenditure, even if services remain at current levels. By 2045, when Aimi and Yoosuf are in their 40s, we could see higher rates of chronic disease, more people caring for elderly parents, and fewer children being born. A thriving population could become a surviving population.
Is it too late to change course?
Absolutely not. If we act with foresight, we can turn demographic transition into opportunity. We can design policies that help people age with dignity, raise healthy families they desire, and live fulfilling lives of their choice.
Consider what just one policy shift could do. Today, vehicles are used even for short-distance travel within Malé, overburdening already congested roads. Now imagine prioritizing people over cars, with walkways and parks designed for children, older people, and those with disabilities. Such facilities would encourage walking not only as a mode of transport, but also as part of a healthier lifestyle.
Imagine local health systems equipped to prevent illness rather than respond to crisis. This would enable Maldivians, Aimi and Yoosuf alike, to better manage their health as they age and to plan and have the families they desire. Think of workspaces and schools that promote balance and wellbeing, empowering young people to realize their potential. If we begin today, there’s hope and potential to build a future that leaves no one behind.
What should we focus on?
To realize a progressive and fulfilling future for all, our focus should be on people, not numbers. The policies we craft today to foster human capital development should address:
Aspirations of the people to have the families of their choice, by making relevant services available and affordable.
Ensuring that older persons remain valued, engaged, and supported, with their composition in society projected to rise from the current 5% to 28%.
Investing in education and skills that prepare young people for an evolving economy, smaller family sizes and the realities of an ageing population.
Expanding care systems that allow both women and men to balance work and family life, enabling them to reach their potential.
Preparing ahead to face uncertainties, from declining low fertility and domestic migration patterns to ever-evolving youth aspirations and gender equality that are central to sustainable development.
We must also never forget inclusivity. Every person representing all walks of life - from those with disabilities to women, girls, older persons, and youth, deserve a Maldives, where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe and every young person's potential is fulfilled.
Aimi and Yoosuf’s generation expect fairness, opportunity, and a voice. If our data can help us listen better, then it has served its purpose.
From data to action
We must remember that numbers only matter when they lead to action. Data is not the outcome; it is a compass that essentially guides us towards an inclusive, equitable and sustainable future. The challenge at hand is not merely to interpret the existing data, but to use it accurately to inform the decisions that will shape the Maldives for decades to come.
At UNFPA, it is at the heart of our mandate to support governments in planning for changing population needs, empowering people to live healthy and dignified lives, so they thrive, today and tomorrow.
 
Coincidentally, World Statistics Day falls today (Oct. 20), a fitting reminder that accurate statistics determine the path forward. The Maldives holds the data to envision its future. Are we going to use it to build a Maldives where Aimi, Yoosuf, and every Maldivian can truly thrive, leaving no one behind?