Comparing the results of this weekend’s by-election in Thimarafushi, with those from the parliamentary election in 2009, reveals that Nasheed’s MDP are losing support. In 2009, the MDP candidate achieved a majority of the vote (51%), while this weekend they only received two fifths of the votes cast (43%). Given events in recent months, this by-election can be seen to be a judgement on national politics, and demonstrates declining support and a swing away from Nasheed, towards the Unity Government. And this means that the MDP and its supporters have to come to terms with a simple fact. Their candidate in waiting -Mohamed Nasheed cannot win an election on his own. It is a fantasy to suggest otherwise. However you look at the challenge they face, the answer to the question “Can Mohamed Nasheed win the 50% +1 of the vote without the help of other parties?” is a resounding “No”. I’ve previously written and suggested my explanation for this. I make no apology for my belief that the buck stops with the actions of former President Nasheed. He had it all and he blew it for the country, its citizens and crucially his own supporters. And the signs were probably always there. Despite his image abroad Mr. Nasheed is not a natural democrat. Just think about his track record with his own party –the MDP, when it comes to how he deals with those who might threaten his ascendancy. To lose one elected President is careless, two is unfortunate, but three would be unforgivable.... Sadly for him and his party Mr. Nasheed’s term of office as President is increasingly being seen as a failure. He was a failure as a democrat. From the start of his presidency he demonstrated his contempt for the rule of law, constitution and values which should be the cornerstone of a democratic state. This manifested itself in so many ways. We saw his attempts to control and bully the state media by refusing to implement the Broadcasting Act which would guarantee its independence. He was unable to deal with political opponents through debate and instead took refuge in the solutions of all autocrats-he locked them up. Honourable Dr. Mohamed Jameel, Honourable Qasim Ibrahim, Honourable Yameen and Mr. Sandaanu Didi are just few examples. But it is perhaps with the judiciary that his anti democratic instincts come to the fore. It’s bad enough that he falsely imprisoned a judge but what was worse was that he flagrantly ignored every legal authority in the land when instructed to release him. He was a failure as a politician because he was unable to govern for all the people. He could not unite the country or keep a coalition together. President Waheed’s unity government has already lasted twice as long as Mr Nasheed’s ill fated administration of 2008! And ultimately-and in their hearts Mr Nasheed and his supporters know this- he let the Presidency slip through his fingers. He was an economic failure because he has squandered our nation’s precious assets. The IMF has recently reported that Mr Nasheed recklessly budgeted to spend in 2012 a sum that was up to a staggering MVR 5 billion more than the country had the means to pay for. He was a failure as an environmentalist because his posturing on the international stage was not matched with concrete actions at home to protect the environment or move towards carbon neutrality. Instead we saw the dismantling of governmental and non governmental institutions that had built up the skills and expertise necessary to defend our precious environment from predatory attacks. He was a failure as a commander in chief. Ensuring the security of our nation and internal peace and stability is the primary role of a President. He comprehensively lost the confidence of the MNDF and the Police force on whom we all rely to protect us. If you want to lead a nation there has to be a bond of trust between a President and its citizens. And what possible reason has Mr Nasheed given the voters to trust him again? The reality is that the MDP has to undertake a period of intensive soul searching if it wants to move forward as an effective democratic force in the Maldives. Note: Dr Hassan Saeed is currently the Political Advisor to President Dr Mohamed Waheed Hassan Manik