The world’s coral reefs have officially crossed a climate tipping point, according to a landmark report published this month by the University of Exeter. 
The Global Tipping Points Report 2025, backed by 160 scientists from 87 institutions, declares that warm-water coral ecosystems are now undergoing irreversible collapse, marking the first confirmed planetary system failure due to climate change.
For the Maldives, where coral reefs underpin national identity, economy, and survival, the implications are existential.
The Point of No Return
The report, released on 13 October ahead of COP30, states that global temperatures have surged past 1.4 Degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, exceeding the thermal threshold for coral survival. This has triggered a self-reinforcing cycle of mass bleaching, acidification, and biodiversity loss.
Predicted temperatures of tipping points for six life-sustaining Earth Systems. (Photo/Science Alert)
“Coral reefs are the first Earth system to cross a climate tipping point,” said lead author Professor Tim Lenton. “We are witnessing the collapse of ecosystems that have thrived for millennia.”
The declaration follows the fourth global bleaching event, which began in January 2023 and has affected over 84 percent of coral ecosystems worldwide. In southern Florida, mortality rates reached 98–100%, with iconic species like elkhorn and staghorn corals now considered functionally extinct.
Maldives; a nation on the frontline
The Maldives hosts over 3 percent of the world’s reef area, ranking seventh globally. Coral reefs contribute at least 20 percent of national GDP, supporting tourism, fisheries, and coastal protection. Their collapse threatens:
Annual flood damage costs climbing (islands like G.Dh. Madaveli get flooded by swelling waves every year)
Loss of beach formation and erosion control
Decline in reef fish catch by up to 100 percent by century’s end
Credit rating downgrades due to biodiversity-linked financial risk
Photo of a reef affected by coral bleaching. (Photo/The Telegraph)
The World Bank’s 2024 CCDR report warned that reef degradation could destabilize the Maldivian economy, urging urgent fiscal reforms and climate adaptation.
Scientific consensus and Global reaction
The tipping point declaration has been echoed by leading coral experts, including Proffessor Terry Hughes from the James Cook University, who said, “We passed the tipping point decades ago.” Marine biologist Christian Voolstra called the report a “last warning.”
The news went viral, with coverage from Nature, TIME, CBS, ScienceAlert, and Channel News Asia. It is expected to dominate climate negotiations at COP30 in Brazil, where tipping points are now central to the global agenda.
While restoration efforts, such as coral nurseries and gene banks, may preserve fragments of biodiversity, scientists warn that recovery is unlikely without reversing ocean warming. The Maldives is exploring coral reef parametric insurance, a world-first model that triggers emergency funds based on satellite-tracked heat stress.
However, experts now agree: adaptation alone won’t save the reefs. Only deep emissions cuts and global cooperation can halt the collapse.
The Maldives Marine Research Institute (MMRI) said in a statement in May 2024 that it has been receiving reports of widespread coral bleaching across the Maldives.
Last year the world had experienced the fourth global coral bleaching event, and the second one within the span of a year.